Last year around this time, I wrote about Tom Brady and the internal conflict of rooting for someone who meant so much to me for two decades, even though that person no longer played for the team I care about. It was the first post in this blog’s history (a history that also includes a breakdown of Harry Potter’s Quidditch career and a dissertation of how Real Housewives of New York reflects the decline of American society for those interested), and a lot of words to basically say “I wish Tom Brady was still on the Patriots, and I wish him the best in Tampa, but I’m still like 30% salty about this whole thing”. I probably could have saved a lot of time and energy by just posting Doug and Jem’s fight from The Town and calling it a day:
In hindsight, I wonder just how many of the misgivings I had last year stemmed from how mediocre the Patriots were in 2020. There were friends of mine that I know treated the Buccaneers/Chiefs Super Bowl as if the Pats were in it, but I couldn’t get there before the game, and I definitely couldn’t get there during the game, when Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown were catching touchdown passes while memories of Ryan Izzo and Damiere Byrd were still fresh in my mind. The Patriots had just struggled through a 7-9 season with a mediocre roster, multiple coin-flip losses (and a few coin-flip wins, so things could have conceivably been worse), and quarterback play that dropped off that cliff Max Kellerman has been talking about for a while after the first handful of games. Can you blame me for wanting to yell “You think you’re bettah than me?!?!” at the TV after Gronk’s second Super Bowl touchdown?
I realize how spoiled this all sounds. But that’s the thing about constant, consistent success: once it’s gone, there’s an adjustment period to come back down to earth. I can’t imagine that San Antonio Spurs fans have loved the last few years, and I know for a fact (and with great delight) that Yankee fans are at their wit’s end after their first decade without a World Series ring since the the 1980s. Lions or Browns fans can’t miss being a contender because it’s been so long since they’ve been one. For most Pats fans my age, outside of a few bits and pieces like Drew Bledsoe, Pete Carroll, and the Patriots being in a Super Bowl a couple years before we were aware of what was going on, our first real memories of the team are Brady taking over and winning titles. Last season was a lot like the final scene of Inside Llewyn Davis, when Oscar Isaac walks out of The Gaslight just as a young Bob Dylan takes the stage, symbolizing a new era for folk music and the rise of the singer songwriter:
If 2019 felt like the Patriots’ run holding on for dear life at the end, 2020 was definitive proof that the run was over. The times they are a-changin’ and all that.
Except…maybe the run isn’t, and maybe the times aren’t? New England splurged in free agency and scored some immediate contributors in the draft to restock their roster, and went 10-7 (really 10-6 with an overtime loss in the new “bonus” game to Dallas) this year en route to another playoff berth. I had come into the season cautiously optimistic that the Patriots would be improved enough to make the postseason, and they met that expectation in a big way. The Pats shot up from 22nd in team DVOA all the way up to 4th, and their flatlining offense from 2020 (20.4 points per game, 27th in the league) found a pulse in 2021 (27.2 points per game, 6th in the league). Last season’s defense looked good on the surface (7th in points allowed), but didn’t hold up to deeper inspection (15th in yards allowed, 26th in DVOA). This year the Patriots were often elite on that side of the ball, allowing only 17.8 points per game, good for second best in football. The Pats scored 45+ points three times, including two 50 point games, and held opponents to 7 points or fewer four times. Overall, it’d be difficult to call 2021 anything but a success.
That’s not to say it’s been a perfect season. The Pats did lose seven games, after all. While some of those big ticket free agents, like Matt Judon, Hunter Henry, and Kendrick Bourne excelled immediately in Foxboro, others like Jonnu Smith, Jalen Mills, and Nelson Agholor struggled to consistently make a positive impact. Rookies Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson impressed, but past picks like N’Keal Harry, JoeJuan Williams, Chase Winovich, Devin Asiasi, and Josh Uche disappointed or completely no-showed (and reminded us why the free agency spending spree was necessary in the first place).
The Pats won seven straight games, and often dominated those contests, but only two of those victories were against playoff teams and that streak was sandwiched between a 2-4 start and a 1-3 finish. They played the Cowboys and Bucs competitively, split the season series with the Bills, and smacked a then-decimated Titans team at Gillette. But, the Patriots strength of victory only had a .394 winning percentage, lowest of any AFC playoff team. They scored on 48% of their drives (2nd best in the NFL), but the offense sputtered at times as Mac Jones worked through some rookie bumps. New England’s defense dominated bad teams while holding the line against good ones, but often struggled to get the big stop when the team needed it most.
Add all that up, and I think you have a relatively clear picture of where the Patriots stand in their post-Brady rebuild: This is a good team that can challenge great teams and typically takes care of business against bad teams, but is sloppy enough around the margins that it’s still a step below the true contenders. In other words, a classic Wild Card team with room to grow into something more. Josh McDaniels put it best when talking about Jonnu Smith’s challenging first season in Foxboro, calling it a foundation year for many of the new players on the team.
The most important part of that foundation, of course, is Mac Jones. I feel like every part of the discourse around Jones’ rookie season has been riddled with caveats, some fairer than others. It’s true that of the rookie QBs this year, Jones was in the best situation. The Patriots built a safety net around McCorkle (strong defense/offensive line/running game with effective, if not spectacular recievers) that provided Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels the ability to ramp up or tone down the offense as needed. It’s also true that, of the rookie QBs this season, Jones was the only one who had anything remotely close to approaching a good season:
Even comparing to a few recent notable rookies, Jones’ season holds up, and is worth comparing to some older players too:
The Patriots needed someone to come in and play the position at an at least league average level while they built up the rest of the roster, and Jones did that this year, while showing flashes of someone who could develop into a high-level signal caller. At minimum, he was a marked improvement over what New England got out of the Newton/Hoyer/Stidham triple threat last year (last chart, I promise, and I included a special bonus player for fun):
Let the record show that I’m not one of those “Mac Jones = 2001 Tom Brady” people. But, rookie growing pains aside (please god no more pick-sixes), it’s pretty difficult to look at Jones’ first NFL season and be anything less than optimistic about how the next decade of Patriots football might turn out.
As fate would have it, all roads have inevitably led to Buffalo, for Pats/Bills III. Bill Belichick showed up to Round I wearing a Navy mask, then the Patriots essentially ran the wishbone for 60 minutes in gale force winds en route to their most memorable victory of the season. In Round II, Josh Allen more or less turned into the Night King:
The Pats turned the ball over twice, and the Bills took a stranglehold on the AFC East for the second straight season. From 2001-2019, that was the type of game New England would win, closing out a rival to all but lock up the division. But the Bills (after two decades of mediocrity and one J.P. Losman) have taken over as the favorite, Super-Bowl-or-Bust team with Brady in Tampa, and the Patriots are now the team trying to rebuild, retool, and catch up. I miss the white-knuckle thrill of rooting for the frontrunner, where every season that doesn’t result in a Lombardi being added to the trophy case is an abject failure. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t enjoying this season, where anything can happen and, regardless of the result, I can look forward to the Patriots building towards the next step in 2022.
Having said that, it’d be really great to beat those guys in their own building.
If you aren’t aware, I have a superpower. The ability to jinx anything and everything comes with great responsibility. Just last week I unintentionally murdered a fun Chargers season in cold blood (I should have known better), so I should probably resist making any picks for this weekend’s action. But, what fun is that? And, does a Twitter jinx have a transitive property to WordPress? There’s only one way to find out:
The Pick: Patriots 20, Bills 17
If the Pats can overcome that, I’ll consider them officially all-grownsed up, and officially back. Either way, I’ll enjoy being just happy to be here for as long as that lasts.
For The Love 