There’s a scene in The Departed where Billy Costigan (Leo DiCaprio’s character) is asked by his probation-mandated psychiatrist to describe how it feels to do what he does as an undercover cop working the Boston mob scene.
Costigan replies: “You sit there with a mass murderer. Your heart rate is jacked. And your hand? Steady. That’s one thing I figured out about myself in prison. My hand does not shake. Ever.“
There might be no better way to describe the 2021-22 Villanova Wildcats than that clip: Clear eyes, jacked hearts, steady hands. No matter how choppy the waters seem to get, these ‘Cats never get lost at sea.
‘Nova advanced to the Final Four for the third time in seven seasons last Saturday, when its signature poise was on full display against Houston in the South Regional Final. In a complete rock fight, where the both teams paid the iron price for every bucket and the Wildcats lost second-leading scorer Justin Moore to a brutal Achilles tendon rupture late, Jay Wright’s group kept their cool throughout. The difference in the tightly contested 50-44 final score? Houston went 9/14 from the free throw line while Villanova, currently on pace to break the college basketball record for highest team FT% in a single season, was a perfect 15/15. Villanova’s hands didn’t shake, par for the course this season.
Last year, I was just happy to have March Madness back after COVID-19 cancelled everything in the spring of 2020. That Villanova, down their most important player, was able to get to the Sweet Sixteen was icing on the cake. The Wildcats’ loss to eventual champ Baylor stung only in the context that it would have been nice to have been at full strength, just to see what might have happened. More importantly, I appreciated that team’s resilience and ability to fight until the end.
This year, then, was a chance to finally fulfill the promise of 2020’s lost postseason and 2021’s hobbled tournament run. Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels were back in the fold as graduate students. Brandon Slater and Caleb Daniels returned as key senior role players. Moore was ready to make the leap, and Eric Dixon was poised for a larger role. This was going to be this particular group’s last shot. One final opportunity for Gillespie and Samuels, indoctrinated into Villanova Basketball™ as freshmen on the 2018 title team, to carve out their own legacy and settle all family business.
Even so, I never felt like this squad had the same Final Four juice that the 2016 or 2018 teams had. That 2016 team was one of the best in the country all season long, finishing 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They were also on a mission to avenge untimely second round exits from the previous two years, and they won four of their six NCAA tournament games by 19+ points (including a 45 point demolition of Oklahoma in the Final Four). The 2018 team, meanwhile, was an offensive juggernaut, maybe the best in recent memory relative to their competition. The ‘Cats’ 127.8 adjusted offensive efficiency that season was 5.1 points better than second best Purdue, larger than the gap between Purdue and 15th best Arizona. For context, Gonzaga’s scoring machine last year had an adjusted offensive rating of 126.4, only 1.4 points better than second best Baylor. 2018 Villanova won every single tournament game by double digits, and smacked Michigan by 17 in the championship in one of those “not quite that close” results. 2022 Villanova has never really felt quite like that.
But for what they’ve lacked in dominant stretches and top-end talent in comparison to those previous championship-caliber teams, the Wildcats have made up for with a cold-blooded, surgical level of execution and attention to detail. All season, and especially over the last month, they’ve ruthlessly dispatched teams simply by not making any mistakes. Whether it was Tennessee early in the year, or Providence later, or UConn and Creighton in the Big East Tournament, Villanova has displayed an incredible ability to run their sets, not turn the ball over, and hit shots—regardless of game situation. It sounds easy, but something as straightforward as “good team not fazed by the moment” should never be taken for granted in college hoops, particularly in March. Villanova grinds teams to dust, and when things get chaotic at the end of games—and their opponents get frenetic—the ‘Cats stay as calm as Ted Chaough in the pilot’s chair:
That’s pretty much how things have played out over the last couple of weeks in the NCAA Tournament. Delaware gave Villanova its best shot, and actually led for the first 16 minutes of the game. ‘Nova was able to get a handle on things by halftime, and wound up winning by 20. Against Ohio State, the Wildcats’ steady hand showed again. They jumped ahead by 10 points about 10 minutes in, and though the Buckeyes cut their deficit to two with 5:41 remaining, Villanova never gave up the lead and won by 10. Same story against Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen: The Wildcats and Wolverines battled through a back and forth first half, but once Villanova took a 23-22 lead with 3:42 remaining in the opening period, it didn’t trail again.
Sensing a pattern here? Once ‘Nova gets control of the game, it rarely gives it back. Wright may have coached more talented squads, but this group personifies his brand of basketball better than any of his other Final Four teams. They’re undersized (Samuels and Dixon are the only de-facto “bigs” on the team, and they’re 6-7 and 6-8, respectively), but never outmatched. Some opponents may be more athletic or more explosive, but Villanova is rarely out-executed. Even in its aforementioned Elite Eight matchup with Houston, another well-drilled, tough, experienced team, ‘Nova made just enough plays (and capitalized on enough Cougar mistakes) to hold on for the win. These Wildcats may not have felt like a Final Four team, but that never stopped them from showing up and putting in the work.
It’s fitting that Villanova’s ascension to Blue Blood status is culminating with the Blue-Bloodiest of Final Fours. Kansas (#2), UNC (#3), and Duke (#4) make up three of the top four winningest programs in college basketball history (apparently Kentucky’s invitation to New Orleans got lost in the mail). Since the Wildcats made their first Final Four under Wright in 2009, no other program has made more:
| Program(s) | Final Fours Since 2009 |
| Kentucky, Michigan St., UNC, Villanova | 4 |
| Duke, Kansas, UConn | 3 |
| Butler, Gonzaga, Louisville, Michigan, Syracuse, Wisconsin | 2 |
If there were any lingering doubts that Villanova belonged in that elite group even after their title runs in 2016 and 2018, this season—where Wright’s ability to consistently recruit, develop, and coach players that fit his system and excel in the program’s culture has been front and center—should have put those notions to bed. If you wanted to argue that this was Wright’s best coaching job yet, I wouldn’t be keen to debate.
Of course, the season didn’t end with that win over Houston. Villanova squares off (yet again) with Kansas this Saturday at 6:09 p.m., in a game where the Jayhawks will be looking to make amends for 2016’s Elite Eight and 2018’s Final Four losses to the Wildcats. Kansas will be challenging for Villanova in the same way that Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad was a difficult, mirror-image matchup. While this Jayhawks team might lack some of the ultra blue chip talent of some of their previous iterations, this is a well-coached veteran team that doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and plays at a high level on both ends of the court. They’ve posted the 7th ranked adjusted offensive efficiency against the toughest slate of defenses in the nation, per KenPom. They’re hot, too, on a nine game winning streak (same as the Wildcats). Kansas also has had the same number of top 100 recruits (6, per RSCI) play for it this season as Villanova, fewer than Duke (7) or UNC (9). All things considered, you could argue this is one of Bill Self’s best coaching jobs. Does all this sound a little familiar?
The ‘Cats are likely to have their hands full with the Jayhawks this time around. It remains to be seen whether Moore’s injury is a lightning rod that the team is able to rally around for an improbable short-handed victory, or if his loss is the piece of the Jenga tower that causes the whole thing to topple over. Samuels has been a menace all tournament long, averaging 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds on 63.4% shooting, but will he and Dixon be able to hold the glass again against another great offensive rebounding team, this time without one of the Wildcats’ best athletes? Daniels has had a strong season, and should slide into the starting lineup without issue. But the Wildcats bench is thin, and Wright will have to lean much more heavily on Brian Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono than I imagine he’d like. For Antoine in particular, this could be his moment. He’s the only five-star recruit on Villanova’s roster, yet has never been able to find a consistent run of high-level play. If he was ever going to put it all together for a few days, now would be the time.
Then there’s the non-court related stuff. If we’re proposing that the 2022 Wildcats are the college hoops equivalent of Billy Costigan, maybe we should consider what happens to that character in The Departed. Despite his protestations that his hand never shakes and that his countenance never wavers, we see that Costigan is actually living on the edge the entire time (the longer version of that clip from earlier shows him briefly breaking down from the pressure in front of Mark Wahlberg’s Sergeant Dignam and Martin Sheen’s Captain Queenan). Are the Wildcats, steady for so long this season, on the verge of finally cracking without one of their best players? Going a step further, Costigan finally catches Matt Damon’s Colin Sullivan (the mob’s mole within the Massachusetts State Police Department) towards the end of the film, but Sullivan gets away after the all-time classic Elevator Scene:
I’m not saying Matt Damon looks like Bill Self…but light brown hair, square head…it’s at least a passing resemblance, right?
If life truly imitates art, then I would say it’s not out of the realm of probability we’re headed for the following scenario this weekend:
- Villanova plays their heart out against Kansas, but without Moore the Wildcats just don’t have the extra gear to get over the hump, and run out of gas as Kansas (and Colin Sullivan stand-in Self) escapes late to reach their first national championship game since 2012.
- Duke, suddenly red hot and looking unbeatable after losing Coach K’s last home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium to UNC and after getting upset in the ACC Tournament final by Virginia Tech, gets revenge against North Carolina in the first Duke / UNC tournament game ever, to advance to its first title game since 2015. Which sets up…
- Bill Self (Sullivan?) and Kansas taking on Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils in the national championship game. Coach K: Dark haired, intense, notorious holier-than-thou “rule follower”, ultra competent, ultra competitive…sound like anyone else we know?
- And if Coach K is the parallel for Dignam, there’s only one way this ends. Duke shocks Kansas late and wins the title. If you thought The Rat in the final frame of The Departed was heavy handed, wait til you see what The Basketball Gods drawing up the “Krzyzewski wins it all in his final season” storyline looks like.
Granted, that’s just one possibility. And if you think the Villanova Wildcats give a damn about destiny, fate, or narratives, you haven’t been paying attention. There are teams you can hit, and there are teams you can’t. Good luck trying to intimidate this Wildcats team, they don’t scare easily and, as we’ve learned this season, their hands do not shake. Count out the ‘Cats at your own peril.
For The Love 