Two summers ago, after the Boston Celtics lost the 2022 NBA Finals to the Golden State Warriors, I wrote about the Championship Crucible, and the often fleeting nature of title contention windows. The core question at the heart of that post was simple: Had the C’s (or at least, this iteration of them) squandered their only shot at a championship? Would they get a second chance after wilting on NBA’s biggest stage?
As it turns out, the Celtics are getting another shot at a ring after all. And make no mistake, the team is treating it that way. Jayson Tatum said as much earlier this week:
For this Celtics team, it’s another opportunity to finally get over the hump and win the franchise’s 18th title (and first since 2008). It’s a chance to, at long last, make good on the promise of the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett draft day trade that netted the picks that would become Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And, perhaps most importantly for the persecution complex of Celtics fans everywhere, it’s a chance to prove those pesky haters and doubters (both real and imagined) wrong.
If you’re a Celtics fan, you know exactly what I’m talking about. You’ve probably spent the last 2 months railing against everyone and their mother at every perceived slight. I know I have. Sure, the “YOU THINK YOU’RE BETTAH THAN ME?” of it all is an exhausting, eyeroll-inducing Boston standard, but I don’t think it’s unfounded in this case. The Celtics won 64 games in the regular season behind a historic point differential. Their point differential was +11.3 points per game this year—that’s 5th best all time and 3rd best since the NBA/ABA merger in 1976, behind only the ’96 Bulls and the ’17 Warriors. In the playoffs, they’re 12-2 with a +10.1 point per game differential. Their best player (Tatum) was just named to his third straight All-NBA First Team, and is leading the Celtics to their second Finals appearance in three seasons. His playoff totals, and the company he’s keeping historically, are becoming staggering. Yet, the discourse in the run-up to tonight’s Game 1 has been less about what the Celtics are (a potentially all-time great team), and more about what they are not (flawless, invincible, allowed to lose a game, etc).
It’s all culminating in an NBA Finals rife with narrative, drama, legacies on the line, and, of course, likely incredible basketball. If 2022’s Finals was The Championship Crucible (a young Celtics team getting its first real shot at a title getting thrown into fires that had already forged a dynasty in Golden State), then this year’s Finals is The Duel of the Fates. Here’s some of what’s at stake:
- The Celtics, who have been to six of the last eight Eastern Conference Finals and two of the last three NBA Finals, have a chance to finally get over the hump, avenge disappointing endings to the last two seasons, and win a record 18th title to complete one of best seasons in NBA history.
- Or…Boston fails to finish the job yet again and we start wondering if the C’s are this generation’s version of the Drexler Trail Blazers or the Stockton/Malone Jazz.
- Tatum could dispel the notion that he doesn’t belong in the best in the world conversation. Or, in two weeks we could be having the “Can you win with him as your best player?” discussion that we’ve been having for 3+ years at this point.
- The Mavericks could pull off one one the great upsets of any Finals ever, in which case Luka Doncic ascends to, perhaps, best player in the league status.
- Kyrie Irving vs. the city of Boston
- Kristaps Porzingis vs. the city of Dallas (possibly almost as toxic as Kyrie/Boston)
- Jason Kidd and/or Joe Mazzulla vs. being considered good coaches after all, actually
- Me vs. losing 3-5 years of life expectancy due to stress-related complications (this may happen regardless of outcome)
Like I said, there’s a lot going on, even without drilling down on every possible storyline. And that’s before even trying to break down any on-court stuff (ESPN’s Zach Lowe has, predictably, already taken care of this better than anyone else on the planet). Regardless of who wins, there’s going to be multiple referendums and career arcs will almost certainly be altered. The way we talk about these guys is going to change, more so than usual even for a Finals.
There’s one more narrative thread worth mentioning. At the tail end of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish’s Celtics run, there were real conversations had about blowing the team up and rebuilding. One of the trades discussed: Shipping McHale out to the Mavericks for Detlef Schrempf and Sam Perkins. It’s a trade that Red Auerbach famously never made, and one of the non-moves cited by Danny Ainge when it came time to move on from Garnett and Pierce about 25 years later. Ainge, unlike Auerbach, wasn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
The resulting haul ultimately landed Tatum, Brown, and also the first round pick used to bring Irving to Boston in 2017. Is it fate that Auerbach not trading with the Mavericks led (in part) to Ainge trading with the Nets, which led to Ainge drafting the Jays and trading for Kyrie, which led to Kyrie ultimately leaving Boston and becoming Public Enemy No. 1, and all three players helping to lead their respective teams to a Boston/Dallas Finals? I’m not sure, but it certainly feels like the Basketball Gods were working overtime on that one.
For many Celtics fans, there’s a sense of optimism in the face of those stakes. But, there’s also sense of anxiety that doesn’t quite jive with Boston’s performance this season, and gives some credence to every gaslighting talking head segment from the last week. Look, I get it. We haven’t seen this Celtics team win it all yet. Until they do, there will always be questions.
There’s plenty of reason to believe Dallas can pull off the upset, too. Doncic is the best player in the series, a gamebreaking talent that is far and away the toughest challenge the Celtics have had to face this postseason (even tougher than Super Saiyan Andrew Nembhard). The Mavericks have been red hot: Including the playoffs, they’re 36-14 since losing to the Bucks on February 3rd (a 59-win pace over 82 games). Over that stretch, they had the 4th best net rating in basketball to close the regular season (+6.2 points per 100 possessions), and have the 4th best net rating (+4.1) in the postseason. Kyrie looked unguardable against Minnesota, and the work Dallas did at the trade deadline to remake their roster and upgrade their supporting cast has paid off. This is every bit a title contender, and a far cry from the team that started the season 26-23.
But for all the talk about how dominant the Mavs have been since the deadline, they still haven’t been as good as the Celtics. Over that same stretch (from February 4th, including postseason), Boston is 39-8. The C’s had the best net rating (+15.5) over the same 33 game close to the regular season, and have the best net rating (+10.8) in the playoffs. For all the talk about how Dallas was able to get by Minnesota’s #1 defense, the Celtics were ranked 2nd on that end…and have a historic offense to go with it.
While people can (and, believe, me, have) litigate Boston’s competition in the postseason due to injuries to opposing stars, the Celtics have still only lost twice: Once on a night where the Heat set a franchise record for three pointers in a playoff game, and once where, in a game tied after two quarters, Donovan Mitchell exploded for 23 points AND the Cavaliers went 10/18 from three AND the Celtics went 2/18 from deep in the second half. That +8 three point differential nets out to 24 points in a game Boston lost by, wait for it, 24. Even at their worst, the Celtics have basically required a perfect game to be beaten. We’ll see how much juice Porzingis has after sitting out for over a month, but if he’s healthy he is the Celtics’ superpower. I’m afraid the Boston’s basketball machine will be quite operational when the Mavericks arrive:
Don’t get me wrong, I’m expecting a hard fought series. The Mavericks are dangerous, and Luka/Kyrie is a terrifying combo. If fate is a real phenomenon, that team has plenty of momentum going for it. I’m still choosing to believe in what I’ve seen all year: That this is one of the three best Celtics teams ever and maybe one of the 5 best teams in NBA history, that the journey that began with the Garnett/Pierce trade in 2013 is about to reach its climax, that you can win a title with Jayson Tatum, that he and Jaylen Brown are a winning combination, and that this Celtics team has been strengthened by The Championship Crucible and are ready to finally raise Banner 18.
The Pick (jinxes be damned): Celtics in 6
For The Love 
2 replies on “Duel of the Fates”
let’s go Celtics!!!!!!
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Love it.
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